Fed decision make-or-break for Bitcoin’s Q4, Nexo data suggests
Bitcoin (BTC) ended the third quarter up 42.7%, from $58,544 to $83,570, snapping three consecutive down quarters. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision is now the central swing factor for what comes next, according to Nexo’s “Digital Assets in Q4: Market Outlook” report published on October 21, 2026. The catalyst behind Q3’s recovery was not a crypto-native development but a macro one. On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would double its purchases of long-dated bonds, compressing yields and sending risk assets higher. Indeed, Ethereum (ETH) gained 70.9% over the same period, while Solana (SOL) added approximately 60%. Quarterly BTC returns. Source: Nexo ETF inflows surged then reversed US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in $2.65 billion in net inflows during September alone, the second-largest monthly total since October 2025, with the bulk of that demand arriving in the final two weeks of the month after the Federal Reser...